Brazil’s presidential election is headed to an Oct. 25 runoff. Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly outpolled Lula in a surprise first-round result.
Brazil’s presidential election is headed to an Oct. 25 runoff after right-wing Senator Flávio Bolsonaro narrowly outpolled President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in Sunday’s first round, a result that surprised pollsters who had largely predicted Lula would lead. With more than 99% of votes counted, Bolsonaro secured roughly 47% of the vote to Lula’s 45%, well short of the majority either needed to win outright.
The outcome marks a sharp reversal from pre-election surveys, which had forecast Lula leading by around 3 percentage points. Analysts told Reuters that much of Bolsonaro’s first-round support likely reflected “protest votes” against Lula rather than votes for the Liberal Party senator specifically, ballots some had expected voters to hold until a runoff. Flávio, who has pledged to carry on the political legacy of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, told supporters in São Paulo he had been confident of winning outright. “Brazil wants change, that’s the reading of what happened today,” he said, adding, “It’s the end of the Workers’ Party era.” Four other presidential candidates trailed far behind the two frontrunners.
The runoff will unfold against a campaign already dominated by crime, corruption and Brazil’s relationship with the Trump administration, with Flávio widely seen as a Trump ally. Beyond the presidency, Brazilians elected governors in all 26 states and the Federal District, along with 54 of the Senate’s 81 seats and all 513 seats in the lower house; early results showed Bolsonaro-aligned coalitions performing strongly in both chambers. Results from Minas Gerais, a state that has backed the winner of every Brazilian presidential election since the end of military rule in 1985, are considered especially significant heading into the second round. Pollsters remain divided on the runoff’s outlook, with one survey showing Lula leading Flávio 48% to 45% and another showing Flávio ahead 44% to 42%, underscoring how closely contested the Oct. 25 vote is expected to be.
This report is based on information from NPR, CNBC, CNN and OPB (citing Reuters and AFP).